2012 Goody's Fast Relief 500 Betting Selections & Fantasy Rankings

Southwest Virginia has blessed NASCAR with an absolutely beautiful day for today’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500. With highs in the mid 70s and only a minimal chance of rain, weather should not be a factor in today’s race--except for those who fail to apply sunblock. In my best DW impersonation I proclaim, “Let’s go racing boys!”

Below is NASCAR Mogul's top 10 fantasy rankings:

1. Kyle Busch - no wins for Kyle at Martinsville, but like the Big Bad Wolf, he has been knocking, kicking, huffing, puffing, and blowing at the door for some time now. Led the most laps here last year and is itching to place the beloved Martinsville grandfather clock on his mantle. Needs to find a way to finish.

2. Denny Hamlin - could moonlight as a office-supply store manager as dominant as he has raced at the famed half-mile paperclip. Rejuvenated with the introduction of Darien Grubb as his 2012 crew chief, also a Virginia native, the two may dominate today’s race--Commonwealth style.

3. Jeff Gordon - a top-five machine at Martinsville. Crazy fast in the last race here, and crazy fast in practice. Car looked well in the track and very balanced in practice. Enough said.

4. Jimmie Johnson - appeared to completely ignore pacing any laps in qualifying trim in Friday’s first practice, which placed him in an ugly spot in the starting line up. No worries. Jimmie finding his way to the front is one of the only guarantees in NASCAR.

5. Brad Keselowski - taking a bit of a gamble with this one. Practiced fairly well here in the fall race, but went backwards almost immediately from the drop of the green. Brad is gaining more and more experience here, and we think he figures it out today.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Confidence, confidence, confidence.

7. Kevin Harvick - is a favorite to win, and it would not surprise. Like Gordon, his car looked great in practice. Well into the track, little tipping, and fast on the long runs.

8. Martin Truex Jr. - gets around this loop pretty well. Hoping to carry over the great finish Michael Waltrip Racing found at our last short-track visit in Bristol.

9. Kasey Kahne - seems like our pole sitter is the fastest car each week down the straightaways, but not so much in the corners. Car is quick, but looked a bit erratic in practice and on the qualifying run. May have a tough time racing through traffic.

10. Ryan Newman - can the pupil show up the master today?

Below are NASCAR Mogul's wagering selections for today’s race:

Shop around. Spreading three units on Kyle Busch (+700), Denny Hamlin (+500), and Jeff Gordon. (+850) to win. We’re still exploring some head-to-head match ups, and will update our plays til the drop of the green flag. The following are our wagers as of now:

Jeff Burton #31 -105* vs Joey Logano #20
Juan Pablo Montoya #42 +115* vs AJ Allmendinger #22
Dale Earnhardt Jr #88 -115* vs Clint Bowyer #15
Martin Truex Jr* #56 +320 vs. Allmendinger, Burton, Biffle, Kenseth
Martin Truex Jr #56 -120* vs Jamie McMurray #1
Greg Biffle #16 -120* vs AJ Allmendinger #22
Kyle Busch #18 +115* vs Jimmie Johnson #48


Updated spreadsheet

2012 Auto Club 400 Betting Selections & Fantasy Rankings

Weather is making selections a bit hairy with rain in the forecast. Hopefully, for all the folks who made the trek to Fontana, the race is completed in its entirety, if given the green flag today. A lot of crew chiefs believe they have top-10 machines, which should make for a competitive contest. Below is Nascar Mogul's top-10 predictions for the 2012 Auto Club 400:

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Tony Stewart
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Carl Edwards
10. Greg Biffle

Tough break for our betting selections last weekend at Bristol, as every driver we backed was caught up in a wreck not of their own making. It's a tough pill to swallow, but happens a couple of times a year. Fontana is a little less hectic, since the track is wide with plenty of racing room and we should avoid a string of DNF's. There are a lot of contenders today, and with the possibility of a rain-shortened race, our advice is to wager a tad smaller than usual, particularly in the win market. NASCAR Mogul's selections are as follows:

Kevin Harvick to win, +1100
Kevin Harvick, top-3, +350
Kevin Harvick, under 6.5, +105
Tony Stewart, top-3, +340
Kyle Busch, top-3, +210
Ryan Newman under 10.5, +105
Martin Truex Jr #56 +105* vs Joey Logano #20 
Jamie McMurray #1 -125* vs Juan Pablo Montoya #42
Jamie McMurray #1 +140* vs Joey Logano #20

The Busch and Busch Show From Bristol

Kyle Busch has won 5 of the last 10 races held at Bristol Motor Speedway. Kurt Busch won 5 of the previous 10 races held there.

A family total of 10 from the last 20. Incredible!

Average driver ratings since 2005 give us what looks like a good guide of who to follow during practice this week.

Kyle Busch 107.0
Jeff Gordon 100.1
Matt Kenseth 99.4
Greg Biffle 96.7
Kurt Busch 95.9
Jimmie Johnson 93.1
Carl Edwards 92.3
Kevin Harvick 90.2
Ryan Newman 89.8
Tony Stewart 89.4
Brad Keselowski 88.3
Denny Hamlin 87.7
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 87.1
Marcos Ambrose 86.3
Kasey Kahne 86.2
Mark Martin 85.6
Jeff Burton 84.7

2012 Kobalt Tools 400 Betting Selections and Fantasy Rankings

Las Vegas is one of the most heavily wagered NASCAR races of the year, and typically one of the easier for sharp bettors to score a big profit. Since it’s reconfiguration in 2006, the progressive banking has brought it more in line with other 1.5 mile tracks, yet it is not a “cookie-cutter” layout per say and holds some particular racing characteristics unique to Sin City. Analyzing the previous Car Of Tomorrow (COT) races reveals that top speed tends to provide an edge over the oft desirable balanced race car which looks for an equal amount of handling, quickness and maneuverability. Since 2008, all but one of the race winners have unloaded fast and clocked in the top seven of the first practice sessions. In 2009, Kyle Busch lost an engine after four laps and ranked fiftieth in first practice, but rallied to win the pole anyways. Dropping to the rear of the field, he piloted the #18 to victory lane. The track is wide and offers many different routes, grooves, and lanes to get around. Drivers will be searching for rear grip all afternoon, and those who can find it on long runs will be in the driver’s seat per say (no pun intended).

Below are Nascar Mogul’s top-ten rankings for bettors and fantasy players:

1. Tony Stewart
“Smoke” absolutely dominated this race last year, leading 163 out of 267 laps, but failed to bring home a victory after an equipment mishap on pit road caught him out of sequence with the rest of the field. Stewart went off at a juicy 17:1 in some books, but could only chase down a second-place finish to race favorite and winner Carl Edwards. After qualifying seventh for today’s race, he spun a practice-high of 52 laps in Happy Hour, dialing his ride in for the long green runs where he excels at picking off his competitors. Lap times were consistent and the track should be slick. Ideal conditions for the reigning Sprint Cup Champion.

2. Kevin Harvick
Harvick has two top-five finishes to show for his last four efforts at Las Vegas. Since 2008, he owns a 99.0% Average Loop Data Driver Rating (LDDR) here--surprisingly, his fifth best circuit on the schedule. Showed some very fast laps on older tires late in Happy Hour and is ticking a lot of the right boxes in our race model analysis. We’re a little concerned if he has enough top-end speed to see out a victory, but if anyone can squeeze a few more tenths out of a car it’s “Happy.”

3. Jimmie Johnson
Whatever has been plaguing the #48 on 1.5-mile tracks over the last calender year has reared its ugly head again, as “ol’ five time” lost his primary car in a Happy Hour accident. Johnson’s back up machine is a winner, so no concerns there. When on the track he looked great, hugging the white line through both turns, but the lack of extra practice laps and the disadvantage of starting from the rear of the field will probably hurt Johnson’s probability at victory. Carrying the race sponsor's colors will push the #48 team to put in an A+ effort and he should pace his way to a top-five finish, though. Always a chance to win, but like most weekends value will be nil.

4. Kasey Kahne
Hendrick shipped some fast cars to Vegas, and none quicker than our pole-sitter Kasey Kahne. He carried a lot of that horsepower to his race setup as well, and clocked some fast average laps in Saturday’s practices. Since 2008, Kahne has scored two top-ten finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but it is one of his worst tracks via LDDR, carrying a measly 78.6 average. Definitely a shot to win and should hold some value, but needs to maintain the handling of his car for 400 miles.

5. Greg Biffle
The Roush brigade are an enigma this weekend. They flash some speed and sticky runs on some cycles, while on others look out of control and on the verge of wrecking (see Carl Edwards). Biffle appears to be the most consistent of his teammates and the fastest. Outside of Kansas, he gets around this track better than any other. Chance to win.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7. Kyle Busch
8. Mark Martin
9. Marcos Ambrose
10. Joey Logano

The win market is more inefficient than usual for our selections, so we will wager progressively between our top five, Jr, and a small long-shot play with Ambrose. Six units in total. Below are the head-to-head and group match-ups we like:


1u-Greg Biffle -105 vs Matt Kenseth 
1u-Dale Earnhardt Jr -115 vs. Brad Keselowski
1u-Brad Keselowski +105 vs. Denny Hamlin
2u-Jimmie Johnson +115 vs. Carl Edwards
2u-Jimmie Johnson -105 vs. Matt Kenseth
1u-Dale Earnhardt Jr -125 vs. Martin Truex Jr.
2u-Dale Earnhardt Jr +120 vs. Clint Bowyer
2u-Jamie McMurray +105 vs. Paul Menard
1u-Kasey Kahne +165 vs. Hamlin, Truex Jr., Keselowski
2u-Kyle Busch +100 vs. Matt Kenseth

2012 Daytona 500 Betting Selections

As any seasoned Nascar bettor will tell you, restrictor-plate racing puts the "crap" in crapshoot. We'll pass on the typical lecture detailing how NASCAR regulations make the cars relatively equal to one another and pack-racing makes the event one for a survival of the fittest. Our best advice to all is to play smaller than small, and enjoy this one more as a fan.

Noticeable in the Bud Shootout and qualifiers is that the new rules package creates a hybrid between the two-car tandem of the last year and half and the mutli-car packs that dominated plate racing in the years prior. The drivers who excelled at multi-car pack drafting historically did very well in these races. But more importantly, because of the ability to engage in two-car tandems still, drivers that showed plenty of speed individually in qualifying and single-car runs is a bonus. Below is Nascar Mogul's top five for today:

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Tony Stewart
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Carl Edwards
5. Greg Biffle

Our best bet of the day is a manufacturer play:

Ford to win +385 (5Dimes)

We like the value in this. Not only are the Ford engines incredibly fast, but they have exhibited a cooling edge over their peers in the the past two weeks. Overheating and engine wear will be a significant factor in today's race, since NASCAR has raised the pressure to 28psi from 25psi on the mandated radiator pop-off valve each team is required to use. This change has allowed teams to run 10 degrees warmer from earlier in the week. Crew chiefs and engine tuners for the Toyota's have noticed their machines are quite sensitive to this increase and are losing power on longer runs. Chevy engines run better when hotter. We give the edge to Fords because of their individual speed, and believe if a long shot wins the Great American Race, the driver will pilot a car from the historic manufacturer.