As any seasoned Nascar bettor will tell you, restrictor-plate racing puts the "crap" in crapshoot. We'll pass on the typical lecture detailing how NASCAR regulations make the cars relatively equal to one another and pack-racing makes the event one for a survival of the fittest. Our best advice to all is to play smaller than small, and enjoy this one more as a fan.
Noticeable in the Bud Shootout and qualifiers is that the new rules package creates a hybrid between the two-car tandem of the last year and half and the mutli-car packs that dominated plate racing in the years prior. The drivers who excelled at multi-car pack drafting historically did very well in these races. But more importantly, because of the ability to engage in two-car tandems still, drivers that showed plenty of speed individually in qualifying and single-car runs is a bonus. Below is Nascar Mogul's top five for today:
1. Matt Kenseth
2. Tony Stewart
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Carl Edwards
5. Greg Biffle
Our best bet of the day is a manufacturer play:
Ford to win +385 (5Dimes)
We like the value in this. Not only are the Ford engines incredibly fast, but they have exhibited a cooling edge over their peers in the the past two weeks. Overheating and engine wear will be a significant factor in today's race, since NASCAR has raised the pressure to 28psi from 25psi on the mandated radiator pop-off valve each team is required to use. This change has allowed teams to run 10 degrees warmer from earlier in the week. Crew chiefs and engine tuners for the Toyota's have noticed their machines are quite sensitive to this increase and are losing power on longer runs. Chevy engines run better when hotter. We give the edge to Fords because of their individual speed, and believe if a long shot wins the Great American Race, the driver will pilot a car from the historic manufacturer.
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