Las Vegas is one of the most heavily wagered NASCAR races of the year, and typically one of the easier for sharp bettors to score a big profit. Since it’s reconfiguration in 2006, the progressive banking has brought it more in line with other 1.5 mile tracks, yet it is not a “cookie-cutter” layout per say and holds some particular racing characteristics unique to Sin City. Analyzing the previous Car Of Tomorrow (COT) races reveals that top speed tends to provide an edge over the oft desirable balanced race car which looks for an equal amount of handling, quickness and maneuverability. Since 2008, all but one of the race winners have unloaded fast and clocked in the top seven of the first practice sessions. In 2009, Kyle Busch lost an engine after four laps and ranked fiftieth in first practice, but rallied to win the pole anyways. Dropping to the rear of the field, he piloted the #18 to victory lane. The track is wide and offers many different routes, grooves, and lanes to get around. Drivers will be searching for rear grip all afternoon, and those who can find it on long runs will be in the driver’s seat per say (no pun intended).
Below are
Nascar Mogul’s top-ten rankings for bettors and fantasy players:
1. Tony Stewart
“Smoke” absolutely dominated this race last year, leading 163 out of 267 laps, but failed to bring home a victory after an equipment mishap on pit road caught him out of sequence with the rest of the field. Stewart went off at a juicy 17:1 in some books, but could only chase down a second-place finish to race favorite and winner Carl Edwards. After qualifying seventh for today’s race, he spun a practice-high of 52 laps in Happy Hour, dialing his ride in for the long green runs where he excels at picking off his competitors. Lap times were consistent and the track should be slick. Ideal conditions for the reigning Sprint Cup Champion.
2. Kevin Harvick
Harvick has two top-five finishes to show for his last four efforts at Las Vegas. Since 2008, he owns a 99.0% Average Loop Data Driver Rating (LDDR) here--surprisingly, his fifth best circuit on the schedule. Showed some very fast laps on older tires late in Happy Hour and is ticking a lot of the right boxes in our race model analysis. We’re a little concerned if he has enough top-end speed to see out a victory, but if anyone can squeeze a few more tenths out of a car it’s “Happy.”
3. Jimmie Johnson
Whatever has been plaguing the #48 on 1.5-mile tracks over the last calender year has reared its ugly head again, as “ol’ five time” lost his primary car in a Happy Hour accident. Johnson’s back up machine is a winner, so no concerns there. When on the track he looked great, hugging the white line through both turns, but the lack of extra practice laps and the disadvantage of starting from the rear of the field will probably hurt Johnson’s probability at victory. Carrying the race sponsor's colors will push the #48 team to put in an A+ effort and he should pace his way to a top-five finish, though. Always a chance to win, but like most weekends value will be nil.
4. Kasey Kahne
Hendrick shipped some fast cars to Vegas, and none quicker than our pole-sitter Kasey Kahne. He carried a lot of that horsepower to his race setup as well, and clocked some fast average laps in Saturday’s practices. Since 2008, Kahne has scored two top-ten finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but it is one of his worst tracks via LDDR, carrying a measly 78.6 average. Definitely a shot to win and should hold some value, but needs to maintain the handling of his car for 400 miles.
5. Greg Biffle
The Roush brigade are an enigma this weekend. They flash some speed and sticky runs on some cycles, while on others look out of control and on the verge of wrecking (see Carl Edwards). Biffle appears to be the most consistent of his teammates and the fastest. Outside of Kansas, he gets around this track better than any other. Chance to win.
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7. Kyle Busch
8. Mark Martin
9. Marcos Ambrose
10. Joey Logano
The win market is more inefficient than usual for our selections, so we will wager progressively between our top five, Jr, and a small long-shot play with Ambrose. Six units in total. Below are the head-to-head and group match-ups we like:
1u-Greg Biffle -105 vs Matt Kenseth
1u-Dale Earnhardt Jr -115 vs. Brad Keselowski
1u-Brad Keselowski +105 vs. Denny Hamlin
2u-Jimmie Johnson +115 vs. Carl Edwards
2u-Jimmie Johnson -105 vs. Matt Kenseth
1u-Dale Earnhardt Jr -125 vs. Martin Truex Jr.
2u-Dale Earnhardt Jr +120 vs. Clint Bowyer
2u-Jamie McMurray +105 vs. Paul Menard
1u-Kasey Kahne +165 vs. Hamlin, Truex Jr., Keselowski
2u-Kyle Busch +100 vs. Matt Kenseth
